To kick things off here at The Sport Locker, I thought I'd take a look at how the greatest rivalry in baseball (and in my opinion, all of sports) is shaping up for 2010. The Yankees and Red Sox have both been busy this offseason, New York preparing to defend its World Series title and Boston trying to bridge the AL East gap.
Now, let me get it out of the way here in my first post: I'm a Yankees fan. More on how a southern boy from Charlotte became a huge New York fan in later entries, but for now, I just thought I'd let you know on which side of the rivalry I stand.
From reading Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch's Inbox entries on yankees.com and watching analysis on MLB Network, it seems a lot of fans are concerned about the Bombers and that the experts think the BoSox have improved more than their rivals. So, I thought I'd examine the teams, piece by piece, to determine who might have the edge come April.
Let me start by saying that even if the Red Sox have improved more than the Yankees, that's not necessarily cause for too much alarm. The Yankees finished 8 games ahead of Boston in 2009, so obviously the Sox are the ones who need more improvement. It's hard to do a ton of improving to a Bombers squad who had the best record in baseball and won the World Series.
For this post, I'm going to take a look at the Starting 9 for each team. I want to compare each position and the primary designated hitter and see how they match up. I'll do a separate entry on the pitching.
So, here goes!
Catcher.
NYY: Jorge Posada
BOS: Victor Martinez
Okay, here, Boston has the edge. However, looking at last year's stats, it's not as huge of an edge as one might think. Obviously, V-Mart is younger and in his prime while Posada is declining. But Posada still had higher OPS and OPS+ numbers than Martinez in 2009. He also had only one fewer home run in more than 200 fewer at bats. And granted, Yankee Stadium was something of a launching pad in the first half, but it's still an 8 AB difference in AB per HR. Victor Martinez hits for a higher average, though, and will get more playing time, especially with his ability to play first base. So the edge still goes to Boston.
First Base.
NYY: Mark Teixeira
BOS: Kevin Youkilis
This is an interesting matchup. Both guys are recent MVP candidates who play Gold Glove caliber defense. Both are feared No. 3 hitters with power and high OBP. So who has the edge? Well, Youk had the higher OPS and BA in 2009. He is also more versatile defensively, capable of playing third (and left in a pinch, although it's not pretty). But Tex had more runs, hits, doubles, triples, HRs, RBIs, walks and total bases. Not to mention a higher OPS+. And apparently not even Theo Epstein thought Youkilis was better than Teixeira last offseason. I'm giving the edge to New York, albeit not a huge one.
Second Base.
NYY: Robinson Cano
BOS: Dustin Pedroia
This is another interesting, close matchup. Cano had a down year in 2008 while Pedroia was putting together an MVP season. But in 2009, it was Pedroia who declined a bit while Cano put up big numbers. Pedroia's "down year" wasn't as harsh as Cano's, and his numbers were still very good, just not up to MVP expectations. But compare Cano's 2009 to Pedroia's 2008. Robbie matches up better than you might think considering he wasn't even in the discussion for MVP last season and Pedroia won it in '08. Cano had more HR, RBIs and total bases, as well as higher OPS and OPS+ numbers. Pedroia's numbers were definitely better overall, with his 20 for 21 stolen bases, hits, runs and OBP. But the gap isn't huge. It'll be interesting to see if the two star second basemen can both have great years in 2010. I'll give the edge to Boston due to Pedroia's superior defense and skill on the basepaths.
Third Baseman.
NYY: Alex Rodriguez
BOS: Adrian Beltre
Okay, defensively, Beltre is clearly better. He's got two Gold Gloves at third base to A-Rod's zero (although A-Rod did win a couple at short). He's been at or near the top in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) in four of the last five seasons, while A-Rod has never been better than average at third. But offensively, there is no contest. Beltre had one great offensive year with the Dodgers in 2004, but he hasn't even come close to touching those numbers since. His highest OPS since '04 is .802 in 2007. Alex Rodriguez has never had an OPS lower than .846 in a full season, and that was way back in 1997. Don't get me wrong, it's not like Beltre is abysmal with the bat. He had an injury-marred down year last season, but he hit 25 home runs the previous three years. But the edge still has to go to the Yankees at third. Alex Rodriguez is coming back healthy with the added confidence of getting the postseason monkey off his back and winning a ring. His defense, which is far from awful, is more than made up for with his bat.
Shortstop.
NYY: Derek Jeter
BOS: Marco Scutaro
Marco Scutaro had a career year in 2009. In his career year, he still didn't have as many total bases as the fewest Derek Jeter has ever had in a full season. Jeter's worst years still match up pretty favorably with Scutaro's best. And coming off one of his best seasons ever, I think it's clear Jeter is the superior offensive player. Additionally, Jeter won the Gold Glove last season, this time without nearly as much protest from proponents of sabermetrics. Jeter's UZR was almost six runs better than Scutaro's in 2009. So, The Captain is better defensively and offensively. Edge: Yankees.
Left Field.
NYY: Brett Gardner
BOS: Jacoby Ellsbury
It's interesting that both these guys were center fielders last season. But according to Boston's depth chart, they're putting Ellsbury in left, which I think is clearly the right move. Mike Cameron is a perennial Gold Glove contender (he's won 3), and even at 37 is still one of the elite defensive center fielders in the game. Ellsbury, despite some highlight reel catches and winning the fan voted This Year in Baseball award for Defensive Player of the Year, is not a great center fielder. Now, I'm not the biggest fan of sabermetrics like UZR, but a look at the ratings for center fielders in 2009 shows Ellsbury was dead last in the majors. It can't be that wrong, right? And with New York getting Curtis Granderson, Gardner will most likely be shifted to left.
As for the comparison, it's closer than you might think. Assuming the two players' defense stays about the same in left, Gardner has the edge. There's a massive gap in UZR, and Gardner also has the better throwing arm (Gardner had only one less assist in 54 fewer games last season). Offensively, Ellsbury is more developed and thus has an edge. But Gardner wasn't far behind in OBP or OPS+ last season, and he had more than half the triples in less than half the at bats (not to mention an inside-the-park homer). Neither is a big power guy, and their speed and on-base numbers are pretty similar. Still, I'll give the edge to Ellsbury because of his experience and better offensive production.
Center Field.
NYY: Curtis Granderson
BOS: Mike Cameron
Mike Cameron's numbers for the past two years are very similar. He has had an 111 OPS+ each of the past two seasons, as well as identical RBI totals (70 each year). Granderson's 2008 was markedly better than his 2009, and his 2007 season was even better than that. But still, Granderson's less-than-stellar numbers last season aren't too far off Cameron's for the past two years. Really, Granderson's .327 OBP last season is the only major flaw in his stats compared to Cameron's. Curtis is a lot younger than Mike, and his left-handed power will fit in beautifully in Yankee Stadium. Defensively, Cameron definitely has the edge, but Granderson is no slouch, providing good speed, average range and a decent arm. I'm going to give the nod to New York here. Even though Cameron is better defensively, Granderson has the youth, and even his down year numbers are comparable to Cameron's production the last two seasons against National League pitching.
Right Field.
NYY: Nick Swisher
BOS: JD Drew
Drew is better defensively. But despite an ugly start to the year, Swisher really improved his defense and throwing. It's not like he's a liability out there. Drew had a better average, OBP and slugging percentage than Swisher in 2009. But Swish had more doubles, home runs, RBIs, walks and total bases. He's a reliable on-base guy who nearly cracked 30 homers last season and has hit at least 20 in five straight seasons. 2009 was the first time Drew cracked 20 homers in the American League. Still, it's hard to ignore Drew's edge in OPS. Boston gets the edge in right.
Designated Hitter.
NYY: Nick Johnson
BOS: David Ortiz
David Ortiz is on the decline. His average, on-base and slugging have taken sharp dips the last two years. He's still got power, with 35 doubles, 28 home runs and 99 RBIs last season. But his sub-.800 OPS was less than fearsome. Nick Johnson is sort of the opposite. He doesn't have big power numbers (only 8 home runs in 2009), but he's an OBP machine who hits for a respectable average as well. His .426 OBP last season was behind only the two MVPs, Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer. And with five of the seven players who hit 20+ home runs last season returning, it's not like the Yankees need a ton of power out of Johnson. They're just depending on him to be on base for Tex and A-Rod. I know it may sound a little crazy, but I'm giving the Yankees the edge here. They're using the DH a little differently, but a guy who gets on base for their heavy hitters is going to really help their offense. Ortiz just isn't what he used to be. Plus, he can't play the field. Johnson can spell Teixeira at first and allow more flexibility in the lineup. With Ortiz, it's pretty much DH or pinch hitter. The edge goes to New York.
Starting 9 Edge: Yankees.
The Yankees have the edge in the infield and at DH. The Sox have the outfield edge, but they don't have any overwhelming mismatches in their favor. I think it's pretty clear that A-Rod and Jeter are bigger threats than Beltre and Scutaro. Even in the positions where Boston gets the nod, it's not nearly that clear-cut. Plus, the Yankees, I think, have just as good of an outfield this year as last. Sure, they lost Damon, but they upgraded in center and have a more defensively comfortable Swisher coming back. And last year, obviously the outfield did the job, even in the World Series when Philly had a pretty clear edge out there.
So, there's my analysis. Next stop, pitching!
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